January 30 – The CIES Football Observatory has released its latest statistical forecast, offering a data-driven prediction of how teams across 42 leagues worldwide are expected to perform for the remainder of the season.
In England, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur are predicted to finish the Premier League season strongly. City, unsurprisingly, are expected to improve, following their £125million spending spree in January—more than their 19 league rivals combined. Pair this with their domestic pedigree, which has seen them lift six of the previous seven titles, and it’s easy to see why CIES expect the holders to go up a gear. Spurs, meanwhile, find themselves hovering above the relegation zone but are expected to drastically improve once their long line of injured players finally return.
In Spain, Girona are forecasted to regain their form as the LaLiga season draws to a close, whereas Leganes could struggle to avoid relegation.
In Germany, Borussia Dortmund are tipped for a powerful finish, with their underlying stats indicating they have performed better than their current 11th place in the Bundesliga shows. The recent sacking of head coach Nuri Sahin could be the catalyst for a change in direction. In contrast, RB Leipzig are predicted to dip following a disappointing European campaign that saw them exit the Champions League at the group stage.
Looking beyond the top leagues, Bulgarian side CSKA Sofia are set for the most significant improvement, with a projected increase of 0.66 points per match. Other teams expected to rise include Al-Wasl FC (UAE) and APOEL FC (Cyprus).
On the other side of the coin, FK Mladost (Serbia) are predicted to see the sharpest decline, with a drop of 0.62 points per match. They are joined by Kalba FC (UAE) and Al-Riyadh SC (Saudi Arabia).
Moving beyond league standings and past results, the model focuses on key performance metrics, such as the number and location of passes, and shots made and conceded. By analysing these underlying statistics, it identifies teams that may be underperforming relative to their true potential and those at risk of struggling to maintain their current form.
This approach provides a more accurate reflection of team performance, offering fresh insights into what to expect for the remainder of the season. It also highlights clubs that may have been fortunate in their results, while also pointing to those poised for improvement.
For clubs battling for European places or struggling against relegation, this data provides vital insights to inform tactical decisions as the seasons approach their business end.
To see the full data click here.
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